Who Will Care for Americans Left Behind by Climate Migration?
Governments have not been honest about climate retreat, its costs, and what happens to those without the means to relocate.
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Environment
Who Will Care for Americans Left Behind by Climate Migration?
As people move away from flooding and heat, new research suggests that those who remain will be older, poorer and more vulnerable.
When Hurricane Helene, the 420-mile-wide, slow-spinning conveyor belt of wind and water, drowned part of Florida’s coastline and then barged its path northward through North Carolina last week, it destroyed more than homes and bridges. It shook people’s faith in the safety of living in the South, where the tolls of extreme heat, storms and sea level rise are quickly adding up.
Researchers now estimate tens of millions of Americans may ultimately move away from extreme heat and drought, storms and wildfires. While many Americans are still moving into areas considered high risk, lured by air conditioning and sunny weather, the economic and physical vulnerabilities they face are becoming more apparent.
Turn Climate Compliance into Climate Strategy
Published in the journal, Nature-Communications, this research integrates observed historic trends of population change, along with flood risk information, to uncover climate migration trends that are occurring in many high flood risk areas across the country. The research highlights the emergence of “Climate Abandonment Areas,” which are locations that have lost population from 2000 – 2020 and can be directly attributed to climate change related flood risk.
The researchers used the Census Bureau’s most recent full population count data at its most granular level, the Census Block, with First Street’s property specific flood risk data. Through this process, “tipping points” were found where thresholds of high flood risk directly impacted population change by varying degrees. These tipping points are projected into the future using future flood and baseline population projections, revealing where future Climate Abandonment Areas will emerge.
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